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​Tackle the world’s most complex risks & get insights to optimise your portfolio


Our cutting-edge and scientifically rigorous models quantify the portfolio effects of primary and secondary hazards, cascading effects across systems, and agent-based decisions. This provides a holistic analysis of risks that allow you to make high-quality risk-informed decisions, including:

  • An optimised portfolio through risk insights & managing risks according to your strategies


  • Improved decision-making by ensuring decisions incorporate overlooked cascading systemic risks


  • Exposure management by being prepared for high-risk grey-swan scenarios


Customers & Key Benefits

Asset Owners

& Managers

  • Portfolio allocation: Quantify and reduce the direct and indirect impacts from CPC risks

  • Portfolio stress testing: Run through scenarios to simulate effects on your portfolio

  • Corporate guidance: Guide corporations to bettter manage CPC risks

  • Portfolio allocation:  Incorporate CPC risks into portfolio and reinsurance decisions

  • Underwriting: Improve underwriting guidelines, and integrate risks into pricing

  • Stress Testing: Apply stress testing as part of risk and solvency assessment processes

Central Banks, Governments, & Financial Regulators

  • Systemic Framework:  Incorporate the cascading and systemic impacts in stress testing frameworks 

  • Stress Testing: Probe the resilience of the financial system and assess how the system can cope with severe and plausible scenarios



Our Software Platform

Key Software Features

  • Dynamic dashboard showing cVAR and tVAR for a set of climate related natural hazards, and emerging infectious disease profiles

  • Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis to illustrate how outcomes change with input value changes

  • API for seamless integration with portfolio analysis tools

  • Investment evaluations for resilient financial productions, including how they reduce portfolio cVAR

  • Database of significant cascading systemic risks

Modeling Methodology

Modeling Approach

We model primary and secondary hazards & threats, first-order and second-order system impacts, agent responses, and interlinkages.​ We use methods and simulation with a wide range of economic and process-based models, cross-sectoral analysis, network analysis, policy analysis, thematic workshops, interviews, focus groups, and statistical analysis of existing datasets.

We run sessions with governments, certain banks, and consumers to understand agent decisions and consult with academics, and forecasters to calibrate distributions and probabilities.

1) Hazard Profiles

Using data climate and environmental data from ISIMIP, and socioeconomic data from the FAO and UN, the frequency and intensity of primary and secondary hazard profiles are mapped at the country level.

2) Exceedance Probability Data

Using public and private data, the probability that a certain loss value will be exceeded due to the primary event is calculated and graphed for a predefined amount of time in the future.

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3) Secondary Hazard Profile Overlay

Cascading hazards in the natural, social, economic, and political systems are overlaid on the primary events map to demonstrate cascading effects.

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Data is simulated over ten years assuming a fixed number of losses per year, using a Monte Carlo simulation to predict cascading trends.

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KPIs overtime, by sector indices

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