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All systems have a coping capacity and a tipping point. Because systems are interconnected, impacts on one system can cascade to other systems. Together, the boundary that leads to systemic failures is called the Tipping Frontier.



We bridge the gap between cascading systemic risk modelling and financial resilience investment

Tipping Frontier models the cascading impacts from climate, pandemic, and conflict risk (CPC risk). We use cutting-edge and scientifically rigorous models (e.g. global equilibrium, coupled and agent-based models) to generate impacts on key macroeconomic variables from CPC risk, and stress test them with Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Tipping Frontier uses this modelling to assess resilient interventions, and develop financial products (such as municipal impact bonds to help fund resilient infrastructure) to mitigate CPC risks.

Tipping Frontier works with a wide variety of world-class modellers, climate risk experts, financial product structurers, and other relevant stakeholders to develop bespoke risk models and financial products.

Leadership Team

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Philip Chen

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Co-founder, CEO

  • Modelled COVID-19 interventions for US governors, horizon scanned COVID’s impact on the global food system, and analysed the systemic effects of food shocks on systems

  • Selected by the Next 36 as one of Canada’s top 36 entrepreneurs, where he started a venture-backed company that was named CIX Top 20 companies in Canada

  • Graduated from the University of Toronto in Financial Engineering, Math and Statistics


Sahil Shah

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  • Is a Honorary research fellow at the University of Madison-Wisconsin, working in the food/energy/water nexus, and a fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC

  • Sits on the World Bank’s Famine Action Mechanism Technical Working Group and the Chatham House Food and Land Use round table

  • Holds a MA in Economics from the University of Cambridge, has spent several years working on modelling the economic impact of disasters, and has previously fed into country-level National Adaption Plans

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